Ansamed

(ANSAmed) - PARIS - Francois Hollande is ahead (28.44%) but Nicolas Sarkozy (27.05%) is not out of the running yet. The only prediction which came true for the sorrowful French polls was that of the two percentage points between the two in the first round of the presidential elections in favour of the Socialist. The rest of the outlooks proved mistaken, from the historic and unexpected surge in support for the far right, which raked in almost 20% for the first time with Marine Le Pen (18.27%), to a much feared abstentionism not seen. Hollande looks to be the clear favourite in the second round, with polls unchanged for the second round from what had been predicted on the eve of the first: 56% for the Socialist, 44% for the current president. A second poll is less clear cut, with 18% of voters still undecided. The French understood that it was better not to take a holiday this weekend, and 80% cast their ballots: the second highest turnout over the past few years. After 5 years on the rise, Sarkozy paid for the general unease generated by the crisis and an attitude which was seen as ''overly informal'' for a president, which he himself admitted to. Anti-Sarkozyism won the day, and from the 31% seen in 2007 support for the president fell to 26-27%. His adversary, Hollande, got the best result for a Socialist since 1988, with two percentage points over his competitor, and his calm and ''normal'' attitude convinced voters but did not lead to a landslide victory. Many were sceptical, as the transition from a candidate from the prestigious gauche like Dominique Strauss-Kahn who had held roles of large-scale responsibility to a humble party functionary had occurred only over a few months. However, Hollande managed it and is now in the lead for the May 6 runoff which could put an end to the 17 years of the right in the French presidency, but which is not yet won. From this past evening on, he can count on votes from Melechon (Front de Gauche), Eva Joly (Europe Ecologie) and Philippe Potou (New Anti-capitalist Party). Sarkozy felt the blow, and at 7 PM gathered together his ministers to decide on a strategy, to then go before his supporters with a smile on his face. ''I would like to propose three debates,'' he said, knowing that Hollande would never agree to it. In any case he let on that he would be fighting for the presidency and focusing on issues close to the far right since it is there, in the strongboxes on the National Front, that the ''treasury'' of votes able to save him is to be found. And it was Marine Le Pen, daughter of the National Front founder, to be celebrating the most yesterday evening in Paris.

Positively glowing, she uncorked bottles of champagne with her fans: in her debut she has gained more support than her father and given the impression that, despite the harshness on some of the issues that have remained unchanged (from immigration to xenophobia), her softer stance paid off and in some way managed to '' legitimize'' the Front. Pollsters put her at four percentage points less than what she ended up getting and had shown her to be a sort of competitor to the far left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, support for whom had instead been overestimated by 3-4% and who ended up getting 11.05%. This unexpected situation complicates the calculations and talks for the second round. Sarkozy can officially hope for a substantial part of voters for the National Front, but he will have to shift his campaign further to the right. At the same time, the disappointing result for Melechon will push many centrists - while awaiting the handing over of votes from the heavily disappointed Francois Bayrou (9.14%) - to vote with a lighter heart fir a Hollande who will not be forced to deal with the issues of the most extreme left. ''I am confident that I am in the best position to win,'' said Hollande with evident joy. ''There is the need to win for the love of the fatherland,'' replied Sarkozy, ''I am going to the second round with confidence.'' ''The French battle has just begun,'' promised Le Pen in looking ahead, aware that now that one French citizen in every five supports the National Front, she will be called upon to take on greater responsibility. ''Our population seems very determined to turn the page on the years of Nicolas Sarkozy,'' commented a Melenchon who saw disappointing results but nonetheless managed to revive a Communist party which in the previous elections had, for all practical purposes, disappeared. (ANSAmed).